The People have Spoken...

(should we listen?!?)

Bush 286:252 Kerry

If you look below, I was off a bit in my forecasting. The following states came in against my expectations:
Bush won NM and OH (which made all the difference)
Kerry won WI

Shana and I spent the evening glued to the TV and internet. This was my first "on-line" election, and I have to admit to being quite the geek - I was monitoring individual county results in Florida and Ohio all evening, to the point where Shana had to stop me from talking back to the commentators on TV who obviously hadn't seen that Dade county had started to report results when he stated that they didn't know if the more pro-Kerry South Florida had were in the numbers they were discussing.

Another peaceful election is behind us. I am struck by how far to the right the Amercian voting populace really is. I probably shouldn't be surprised, but frankly, I am. Not that W. was re-elected, I had guessed at that for quite a while. But I was surprised at how big a victory it was, and the coat-tails bringing expansion of Republican control of the Senate and House and the overwhelming approveal of anti-gay marriage/benefit propositions in 11 states.

I know people who feel thier faith in the American people was restored last night...and I know people who were terrified by and disappointed in with the American people last night.

Share your reaction to the results or how you watched the election in the comments if you wish.

I pray that God continue to bless America, One Nation Under God.

Election Day in America

I got my vote in! How about you?

Shana and I got in line at our polling place at about 6:50 am. We were about 40-50th in line at that point, but it flowed pretty quickly. I voted at 7:30am - so it was only about a 40 minute wait (much shorter, I'm guessing, that the wait after work would have been).

We are fortunate enough to have possibly the finest polling location in all of the United States. We vote at a little bed and breakfast about 6 blocks away from where we live. It is a georgous old home that is beautifully decorated. This morning, for us early risers, the bed and breakfast had out complimentary doughnuts and coffee which was welcome with our wait in the wet, chilly weather. I feel like we are 'pampered' voters. I read a humorous list of advice to voters last week that noted if you don't know where your polling precinct is located, look for the oldest, darkest, grungiest building in your neighborhood - that's probably it. Fortunately for us, we get a little luxury in the voting process.

The ballot was quite long - with most of the offices being run unopposed. There were three city propositions on the ballot as well. We use an e-slate electronic voting system, and for as long as the ballot was, the job was finished quickly and easily.

I caught the weather before heading out this morning - and I'm a bit concerned. It looked like Florida was going to be clear, which is positive, but it looked like there would be rain all across Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. That worries me. I just hope that the voters up there get up and get out and get their vote in.

I love election day. I saw Tom Brokaw on MSNBC last night, and he made the comment that as polarized as America is right now, it is a beautiful thing that we are making huge decisions on war, homeland security, economy, healthcare and other value issues - with no tanks in the streets, no guerrillas strongarming, etc. I thought that was such a good point that we all just take for granted. I thank God for the wisdom and foresight that he instilled into the founders of our nation, that they were able to create a system in which we can peacefully transfer power according to the will of massive corporations...sorry, I mean the will of the people. :) I truly thank God that I am an American. Today is a great day - today American can take a step, even if a baby step, forward to being a better country for our grandchildren than it is for us. What a wonderful system.

Swing States

I spent some time the past few days going over the Electoral Vote map and the latest polls for individual states. (There is a really good web feature at latimes.com where they allow you to see the polls by state and adjust which way the state goes to see an electoral vote total.)

Okay, remember, 270 electoral votes required to win. Okay, I would include the following in a list of Swing States: AR, IA, MN, WI, OH, PA, FL, NH and NM. (Other states that the media is considering close are as follows: OR, MI and ME which I have in Kerry's camp; and NV, CO, MO and WV which I have in Bush's camp.)

With this as a starting point - the electoral votes look as follows:
Bush - 221
Kerry - 207
Contested - 110

Here is an update on some of the latest polls in important battleground states:
State __________ Bush ___ Kerry
Arkansas (6) _______ 48 _____ 48 (Oct 18-20)
Iowa (7) __________ 48 _____ 47 (Oct 18-20)
Minnesota (10) _____ 48 _____ 48 (Oct 18-20)
Wisconsin (10) ______ 49 ____ 46 (Oct 17-19)
Ohio (20) _________ 46 _____ 50 (Oct 17-21)
Pennsylvania (21) ___ 46 _____ 48 (Oct 17-22)
Florida (27) _______ 46 _____ 46 (Oct 19-21)
New Hampshire (4) __ 41 _____ 50 (Oct 18-21)
New Mexico (5) _____ 46 _____ 48 (Oct 16-18)


A few interesting tidbits:

1. No Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio.
2. If MN goes Bush, that is really a coup. MN is generally considered one of the more liberal states around.
3. WI is similar, while not as liberal, it is a generally progressive state that went Gore.
4. Interesting sidenote - CO has a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would split the electoral votes based on percentage of votes. CO is close - with Bush looking to pull out a win, but very close. The amendment could be retroactive if passed - thus if passed, the 9 electoral votes would be split 5 to 4. Currently, the amendment is losing in some fairly close polls.
5. Although the big battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are absolutely of incredibly high priority - in my opinion several smaller states are going to provide interesting battles - and could decide the election. (In 2000, Florida was the focus, but I've always felt it more important to note that Gore could have lost Florida and still won the election by winning his home state of Tennessee and Clinton's home of Arkansas. Two small states, but they would have put him over the top.) In 2004, AR is again a completely over-looked swing state. There are very real scenarios where Kerry could lose Florida, but it he was to win AR, he could get over the top. Other smaller states with similar potential are New Mexico and New Hampshire.

Today the Candidates will be campaigning:
Bush - Wisconsin and Iowa
Cheney - Florida

Kerry - Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa
Edwards - Minnesota and Pennsylvania

And my Oct. 26 guess at which way the states will fall:
Kerry - MN, OH, PA, NH, NM
Bush - AR, IA, WI, FL
Bush 271 - 267 Kerry