A New Direction...

It's been a good night.

Much better night than I expected.

Hopefully, this will indeed be a new direction for America. Maybe we can put behind us the past six disastrous years of the Bush administration.

Montana and Missouri are still out there...but both of them look reasonably good for the Democrats. If so - that's both the House and Senate. Unbelievable.

I don't know if I'll be the first to say it - but Kudos and Congratulations to Howard Dean and the 50 state plan. Governor Dean deserves much if not all of the credit for this landslide Democratic victory. Brilliant strategy, brilliantly executed.

It's been a good night. Now, let's all hope that this indeed portends a New Direction for America.

Wrong...

Nope...the numbers do not seem to be working out for one of my favorite candidates - Harold Ford, Jr. in Tennessee.

88% is in...and all of Memphis - and he's still almost 60,000 votes down. More than half of Nashville is still out, but I now don't think the numbers are going to work out. I think it will still close - but not enough.

(FYI - I though he would win Shelby by 100,000 plus votes. It turned out to be 76,000. I'll still bet money that he'll lose by right around that 24,000 difference.)

Lampson...

Nick Lampson will win TX-22.

Whew...

Webb...

Another impulsive call...

Webb is going to win Virginia. He's been down all night - but with 95% reporting he's only down by 12,000 votes...and Richmond is only 70% in.

These Democrats are going to win in two Republican seats becasue the cities are reporting late...

I think...

Ford...

Total gut-call here...

Right now, 9:55, Corker leads by 5% with 74% reporting...

I'm calling Ford the winner.

The most votes outstanding (I've been looking at the individual county analysis in Tennessee) are in Shelby Country and Davidson County - Memphis and Nashville.

This is going to be a last-minute comeback, and Ford will win...

I think.

Last minute predictions...

Okay. We're here. Mid-terms 2006. I'm going to make some last minute (relatively-uninformed) predictions and see how it all turns out tomorrow.

Senate:

Overall - Democratic Gain of 3

Important Races -
Rhode Island - Whitehouse picks up one for the Dems
Connecticut - Lieberman holds as an Independent Democrat
New Jersey - Menendez holds on to the seat for the Dems
Maryland - Too close to call - I'm giving this to the Rep Steele for the terrific campaign he has run...Republican gain
Virginia - I think the power of the incumbent will trump in this toss up race - Allen holds the seat for the Reps
Pennsylvania - Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead! Casey picks up one for the Dems
Ohio - Good campaign by Sherrod Brown in a terrible year for Ohio Reps - pick up for the Dems
Tennessee - Harold Ford Jr. ran what may have been the best campaign in Senate history, making an improbably competitive run in a Republican stronghold...but the nasty, dirty Republican machine politics turned this race at the death - Corker holds for the Reps
Missouri - Oh, so close. I'm going to guess and say Reps hold...but could go either way
Montana - Tester is the perfect man for Montana, and will pick one up for the Dems
Arizona - This race has come from no where to get tight at the end, but Kyl will hold for the Reps without much problem

House:

Overall - Democratic Gain of 12

I don't even pretend to follow too many individual House races, but I did some quick-and-dirty reading about some interesting and competitive races, and I think that the Democrats are going to be able to make some strong gains - though not nearly what the media is hyping. I think the interesting places to watch will be the races in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wyoming - and of course TX-22.

Pre-Game analysis:
I think there are two stories to come out of this election - the corporate-media story, and the real story.

First - I think that the big corporate media story on Wednesday will be the big "victory" of the Republicans, because they've managed to hold both Houses of Congress. Why? Because the Republicans have managed expectations so well this year - while the Democrats have gotten caught up in the hype.

The right-wing vote is not as disinterested and unmotivated as the Republicans have led the media to believe...in fact, they will turn out in large numbers, just as they always do. And that will tip the scale in the 70 or so competitive races. The Right has effectively been sending out negative signals so that even such a disastrous loss as what I am predicting can be spun as a victory. Very smart.

Second - in my opinion the real (but unreported) story will be the HUGE SUCCESS of Howard Dean's 50-state plan. When is the last time over 70 seats in the house, and 10+ races in the Senate were competitive? In the end, most of those races will end up staying Republican...but it is a miracle that they are competitive - especially in Republican strongholds like Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Montana, Missouri, Idaho, etc. And this is the first election of the 50-state plan. Even without taking either the House or Senate, the Democrats should be overwhelmingly excited about the first-cycle success of this plan. With perseverance, this is going to turn the map blue. Kudos to Howard Dean - and the tremendous slate of candidates that the Democratic party attracted in 2006.

Let's see what happens...

Prior related posts:
Midterm predictions for the Midterms...

One final plug...

I had two good opportunities last night.

First (and admittedly foremost) I was able to take my son to the Houston Dynamo's Western Conference Championship game, which the Dynamo won to make it to the MLS Cup Final in Dallas next weekend.

That was a great time.

But I had another great opportunity. I got to shake the hand of Jim Henley, who was doing some last minute campaigning outside the entry gate to Robertson Stadium before the game.

Jim Henley is running an uphill battle to unseat the incumbent in TX-7. In fact, it's probably a lost-cause sort of a battle. But Mr. Henley is a candiate worthy of support. From his website:

James B. Henley has dedicated his life to teaching since 1987. He has taught History and Debate at Sidney Lanier Middle School where he has won the praise and devotion of a generation of Houston students.

The Lanier debate teams have won three consecutive National Middle School Debate Championships. In fact, Mr. Henley’s teams are undefeated in debate competition since 2002. [See the news links in Lanier Debate section.] For the past eighteen years, Mr. Henley has directed an annual tour of Washington D.C. leading several thousand parent and students from his school community to meet national leaders from both parties.

Jim was born in 1947, the son of James B. Henley Sr., a World War II veteran and Laura H. Henley, a native of Belgium. They met and married after the war and raised seven children in Camden, Arkansas.

Jim graduated from University of the Ozarks in Clarksville, Arkansas. He served as pastor of the Second Baptist Church of Clarksville from 1967 to 1976 and graduated from Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary in Fort Worth.

In addition, this is what the Houston Chronicle said in endorsing Mr. Henley in the Democratic primary:

IN the predominantly Westside Houston 7th congressional district, the Chronicle endorses Houston public schoolteacher Jim Henley, a debate instructor at Lanier Middle School, who is seeking to unseat entrenched incumbent John Culberson.

Seeking to capitalize on voter unease over ethics scandals in Washington, Henley is running a grassroots campaign using a cadre of former students and their parents as volunteers. He has vowed to take no political action committee contributions and is counting on small, individual donors to fuel his effort. He opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq and is calling for a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops by next December.

Henley favors banning automatic assault weapons, but believes hunters should have their rifles.

...He has established a reputation of high character and academic leadership during his 18-year teaching career. He opposes extension of portions of the Patriot Act that he feels erode citizens' constitutional rights and decries the warrantless NSA surveillance approved by the Bush administration.

Jim is a good candiate, in a tough district to try to unseat an incumbent. But I will always be proud to support good candidates like Mr. Henley - regardless of the result.

Jim Henley, Teacher for Congress!!

Surprise, surprise...

Looks like I just might be right after all - Write-in tightens race in District 22.

The Republican write-in effort to hold former Rep. Tom DeLay's congressional seat, once viewed as a long shot, has created a tight race, according to a Houston Chronicle-11 News poll.

Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of more than 500 likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District.

Most who say they will write in a candidate plan on naming Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, the Houston city councilwoman backed by the Republican Party. Two lesser-known candidates also are running as write-ins.

This is what I wrote two weeks ago:

[I]n an admittedly isolated personal observance, it appears that in Houston, the Republicans are starting to pour on the money. Commericals on the airwaves can be heard for Sekula-Gibbs - but I haven't heard anything from Lampson. In addition, there are two big billboards heading down 59 South for Sekula-Gibbs...nothing from Lampson.

Maybe it's just me - but in one of the most heavily Republican districts in the US, I think that the Vote Twice/Write In campaign is gaining traction, and she has a chance to upset ... the underdog.

If a write-in wins in TX-22 it will be unprecedented, but not wholly unexpected.

Related prior post:
An upset, of what would have been an upset, in the making?...

Why they'll hold...

Two interesting articles recently about the GOP's unequaled Get Out The Vote (GOTV) machine.

First, from today's Houston Chronicle - Republicans oil their successful turnout machine.

Despite the gloom, Republican campaign operatives sound confident. They have been fine-tuning their data-mining, micro-targeting and other methods that served them well in past elections. Some Democrats are beginning to sound worried.

Republicans, led by White House political guru Karl Rove, sought in 2002 to reverse a decades-long Democratic edge in voter turnout that was fueled in large part by well-organized labor unions.

The GOP developed a program that started three days before the election. It was aimed at identifying Republicans and likely Republican voters and getting them to the polls. The tactic was fine-tuned in 2004 and will be even more effective this year, Republicans said.

"We are putting forward the most unprecedented grass-roots effort in the history of midterm elections," said Danny Diaz, spokesman for the Republican National Committee. "We outraised the Democrats, we've made more voter contacts, and our (get-out-the-vote) operation is more robust — we are extremely confident we have built a foundation to maintain our majorities."

The Republican Party has raised $199.4 million since the 2004 elections, almost double the $108.4 million raised by the Democrats.

In 2004, the Republican Party used marketing-style data-mining — for example, calculating whether a certain voter in a particular district owned a snowmobile and was therefore a likely Republican voter, then targeting the prospect with a narrow political message.

This is precisely why I'm still skeptical that the Democrats will be able to win either the House or Senate. The margins in so many of the individual campaigns are razor thin - and it is the Republican's GOTV effort that will get them over the top.

On a similar note, the Washington Post had a great analysis of the most basic of Republican election year tactics - The GOP Leans on A Proven Strategy.

President Bush and Vice President Cheney have given multiple interviews to conservative journalists, senior adviser Karl Rove has telephoned religious and social activists, and the White House has staged signing ceremonies for legislation cracking down on terrorism and illegal immigration. Two weeks before Election Day, Bush aides invited dozens of radio talk show hosts for a marathon broadcast from the White House yesterday to reach conservative listeners.

The message that Bush and others are sending to alienated supporters is that, no matter how upset they have been about various policies or political missteps over the past couple of years, life would be far worse under the Democrats. They name liberal lawmakers who would take charge of key committees and warn conservatives that taxes would go up and protection against terrorists would go down.

The White House courtship of the right paid enormous dividends in the past, but this year it is complicated by a far more skeptical audience than in 2002 and 2004. Conservatives who were key to those victories have grown frustrated with the Bush policies on federal spending, immigration, Iraq and foreign affairs, and uncertain of his commitment to issues such as preventing legalized same-sex marriage. The Mark Foley page scandal did not help reassure "values voters," as strategists call them, nor did the publication of a book by former White House official David Kuo saying that Bush aides dismissed Christian conservatives as "nuts."

Manipulate the Christian right...even though Bush, Cheney, and Rove have stated that they are simply "nuts" who sole purpose is to be manipulated.

The Republicans are failures at governing our nation - but they are experts at elections. They'll show it again this year.

Related prior post:
This sums it up...

Lampson for TX-22...

Big step for Nick Lampson in his attempt not only to win TX-22 this year, but to retain the seat going foward - VFW endorses Lampson in District 22 race.

Lampson was originally the big underdog, running against Tom Delay in a heavily Republican district. After Delay's corruption led to an indictment and his subsequent withdrawal from the race, Lampson became the favorite. It is widely expected, however, that Lampson will simply be a temporary seat-filler, until a Republican can run again in 2008.

Maybe not:

The national Veterans of Foreign Wars PAC has endorsed Democrat Nick Lampson in his race for former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's seat, an endorsement that Lampson's campaign says helps debunk claims that he is a liberal.

Lampson's staff has been touting his VFW endorsement and the endorsement of the National Rifle Association to show that the former congressman is a moderate to conservative Democrat in line with voters in this conservative Republican district.

Of course, this is the only other option:

Republican write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs doesn't detail her stand on the war, except to say that she supports the president's war on terror and opposes an early withdrawal.To be fair, Sekula-Gibbs entered the race very late, and is simply not qualified for seat.

Go Nick Lampson!!

The key...

Will the Democrats be able to win the Senate in the 2006 midterm elections?

Back on 2-October I suggested that the Democrats would pick up 2 seats in the Senate. Since them, it seems as if Santorum really has lost his seat in Pennsylvania, which would bump the number to three...

But one of those two I was counting back on 2-Oct was Harold Ford Jr. pulling the HUGE upset in picking up a seat in Tennessee. Today, I feel much less confident that Ford will be able to pull that upset off ... but I have become more convinced that if he does win Tennessee, that is a much larger statement about the national scene, and the Democrats may be able to come up with the other three victories and take the Senate.

Let me explain...

First - why am I less confident that Ford is going to win Tennesse? Simple answer - typical Republican gutter-tactics - see the following two pieces: More on the Tennessee Mudslide; A Contentious Campaign in a Battleground State. Consider:

RUSSERT: Ken Mehlman, the Republican candidate in Tennessee has asked that you take that ad off the air, that it is over the top. Former Republican Senator William Cohen says it’s, quote, “overt racist appeal.”Will you take that ad down?

MEHLMAN: Tim, I don’t have the authority to take it down or put it up. It’s what called an independent expenditure.The way that process works under the campaign reform laws is I write a check to an independent individual. And that person’s responsible for spending money in certain states. Tennessee is one of them.

I’ll tell you this, though. After the comments by Mr. Corker and by former Senator Cohen, I looked at the ad. I don’t agree with that characterization of it. But it’s not an ad that I have authority over. I saw it for the first time the same time that they did.

RUSSERT: The whole idea of having a blond white woman winking at a black Congressman, the notion of interracial sex is not in your mind racist?

MEHLMAN: I think that that ad talks about a number of people on the street talking about things that Mr. Ford allegedly has either done or a proposal he has for the future. I think it’s a fair ad.

Disgusting. Or this:

[Republican candidate] Corker depicts himself as more "senatorial" than Ford but is running an almost entirely negative campaign at this point. He depicts Ford as a smooth-talking city slicker who has deeper roots in Washington, D.C. -- where Ford lived for part of his childhood -- compared with Corker, the self-described "real Tennessean" in the race.

The hardest blows have come from the national GOP. The National Republican Senatorial Committee ridicules Ford's expensive tastes on a "Fancy Ford" Web site, and the Republican National Committee is airing a controversial new ad that features a scantily clad blonde who says she met Ford at a Playboy party. "Harold, call me!" the woman chirps.

Ugh. When you have no ideas, you resort to slime. Unfortunately, these days slime is terribly effective, and such a dirty, nasty, negative campaign could very easily turn this campaign around in the final couple of weeks. It's a shame that a candidate with leadership, vision, and exuding confidence in Tennessee and America would be torpedoed by dirty-Republican tactics...but that's the way it goes.

But, Ford is a great candidate, and will keep fighting to the end of this thing - bringing lots of Tennesseans around:

John Layne is a 57-year-old white Republican with a long gray beard, no job and advancing emphysema. He arrived an hour early to hear Harold Ford Jr. speak in this struggling mountain town.

"Oh, sure, there's some prejudice," Layne said as he contemplated casting a ballot for a black man. "I wouldn't want my daughter marrying one." But he's more concerned about rising medical costs: When it comes to voting, "you gotta look at the person, not the color."

While visiting a diner in Oak Ridge, Corker stopped to shake hands with Linda Ramsey, who was having lunch with her husband, Dale, and daughter Kelcee. Ramsey responded with a big smile when Corker asked for her vote. But when he moved to the next table, she conceded she was leaning toward Ford.

Although she supported Corker in the primary, Ramsey explained, "all he wants to do is point fingers. Ford is stepping up above it."

If Ford can pull this off in Tennessee, then nationwide, Democrats have a real chance. To be able to fend off the dirty-Republican tactics would be indicative of a national wave of support for the New Direction of the Democrats, and a latent disgust of these typical Republican tactics.

Go Harold Ford Jr.!!

From Improbable to Possible...

Really nice profile about Texas Gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell in todays Houston Chronicle - Bell's Political Revival Harder than Imagined.

Chris Bell's political career was in the dumps by Christmas 2004.

Bell already had lost a bid for Houston mayor, and Republican redistricting had cost him his seat in Congress after his freshman term. But on the upside, Bell had become a hero among Democrats for filing a successful ethics complaint against then-U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land.

In the kitchen of his Houston home, Bell sat with Jeff Steen, his longtime friend and political adviser, trying to decide whether to run for governor, Steen recalls.

Bell knew it would be an uphill battle, requiring almost a miracle to win. But he believed it could be done by the right candidate in the right place at the right time, Steen said.

However, the road has been steeper than Bell could have imagined.

Democratic leaders and financial donors dodged his calls. The news media cast him as an underfunded also-ran.

It is almost utterly inconceivable that a Democrat could win the Governor's office in Texas - or almost any statewide office. But - if it was going to happen, this would be the year. There are five candidates in the race, and winner takes all - no run offs. The candidates are Republican incumbent Rick Perry. More conservative independent Carrol Keeton Strayhorn - who is running due to her distain for Perry, and belief that he is not conservative enough. Independent Kinky Friedman - who is an odd candidate who could pull disaffected liberal voters, but whose policy positions veer to the right. There is a Libertarian candidate - which will take conservative votes.

And then there is Democrat Chris Bell. Essentially, there are four conservatives and Bell. Clearly, the hope of the Bell campaign is for a very large Democratic turnout, Democrats vote for him instead of Friedman, and finally, that Strayhorn, Friedman and the Libertarian take many votes away from Perry.

Unlikely, but possible.



ABOUT CHRIS BELL
• Age: 46
• Family: Married to Alison Ayers. They were introduced by Allen and Elizabeth Blakemore, two of Houston's top Republican political consultants. The Bells have two sons: Atlee, 10, and Connally, 8.
• Education: Graduate of the University of Texas at Austin and the South Texas College of Law. He was a member of Phi Delta Theta at UT.
• Background: TV and radio reporter. Lawyer. Member of the Houston City Council, 1997-2002. Ran an unsuccessful race for Houston mayor, 2001. Served in the U.S. House, 2003-2005.
• From the stump speech : "If you give me the bully pulpit and a veto pen, I will lead a 'New Texas Revolution.' " "Carole Strayhorn and Rick Perry are two sleeves of the same empty suit"
• What you might not know about him: Bell has a dry, quick wit. But because it is situational and has a you-had-to-be-there quality, his humor rarely translates to the news media.

Looks like I am wrong...

Okay. I can admit it when I'm wrong, or when I'm potentially wrong.

Last week I wrote about the TX-22 campaign, and said based on personal observation that it looks as if Shelley Sekula-Gibbs campaign may be getting some traction in the heavily Republican district.

Individual personal obervation is often a poor indicator of the overall picture.

Restate.com - a hardcore right-wing Republican blog-site - recently carried a posting mentioning that the Libertarian candidate in the race in TX-22 is out-polling Sekula-Gibbs, the Republican write-in candidate. Yikes. That would be a monumental embarrassment for the Republicans.

Related prior post:
An upset, of what would have been an upset, in the making?...

An upset, of what would have been an upset, in the making?...

Interesting article in the Houston Chronicle today about TX-22 - Big Gap in Cash Marks Dist. 22 Contest.

The article focuses on the big lead in cash that Democrat Nick Lampson holds over Republican Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, who is a write-in candidate for the Republicans after former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay had to resign in disgrace after being indicted for egregious corruption.

Lampson has $1.7 million in the bank compared with Sekula-Gibbs' $403,000 in the race to replace former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay in suburban Houston's congressional District 22.

Since DeLay's resignation in the midst of scandal, and the Republican party's inability to replace a name on the ballot under Texas law, pundits have put TX-22 in the solid Democratic column, assuming that the Republican's would not be able to win with a write-in candidate. Maybe.

But, in an admittedly isolated personal observance, it appears that in Houston, the Republicans are starting to pour on the money. Commericals on the airwaves can be heard for Sekula-Gibbs - but I haven't heard anything from Lampson. In addition, there are two big billboards heading down 59 South for Sekula-Gibbs...nothing from Lampson.

Maybe it's just me - but in one of the most heavily Republican districts in the US, I think that the Vote Twice/Write In campaign is gaining traction, and she has a chance to upset ... the underdog.

Who would have thought a Democrat could have won TX-22? Who would have thought a write-in candidacy could beat the only major party candidate on the ballot?

This district could still come down to a crazy finish.

A link...

If you don't live in Tennessee it won't be as relevant, but anyone looking for a public servant to support should click here:

Harold Ford Jr. for Tennessee Senate

Midterm Predictions for the Midterms...

Okay - so it's not exactly early predictions for the coming November midterm elections, but it's not last minute predictions either, so I'm calling it my "Midterm Predictions for the Midterms."

Early in the summer there was a lot of excitement in Democratic circles that during the 2006 Midterms they would take back both houses of Congress. That excitement was quieted a bit during September, when the White House used the 5th Anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks to do some campaigning, but it seems as if the Democrats are getting energized again.

The latest Mason-Dixon/MSNBC polls for contested Senate races would seem to justify Democratic excitement. As of last Friday (29-Sept.) the races stood as follows:

Maryland (Democrat held):
Cardin (D) - 47
Steele (R) - 41

Missouri (Republican held):
Talent (R) (i) - 43
McCaskill (D) - 43

Montana (Republican held):
Tester (D) - 47
Burns (R) (i) - 40

New Jersey (Democrat held):
Menendez (D) - 44
Kean (R) - 41

Ohio (Republican held):
Brown (D) - 45
DeWine (R) (i) - 43

Pennsylvania (Republican held):
Casey (D) - 49
Santorum (R) (i) - 40

Rhode Island (Republican held):
Whitehouse (D) - 42
Chafee (R) (i) - 41

Tennessee (Republican held):
Ford (D) - 43 ... (Rasmussen polls indicate - 48)
Corker (R) - 42 ... (Rasmussen polls indicate - 43)

Virginia (Republican held):
Allen (R) (i) - 43 ... (Rasmussen polls indicate - 49)
Webb (D) - 43 ... (Rasmussen polls indicate - 43)

Washington (Democrat held):
Cantwell (D) (i) - 50
McGavick (R) - 40

These numbers seem to indicate pretty good news for the Democrats and their hope to gain control of the Senate (they need to pick up 6 seats). They look pretty solid to win back thier incumbancies (MD, NJ, WA) although New Jersey seems to still be up in the air. In addition, of the seven Republican seats they are challenging in (which by the way does not include Connecticut, because although it is de facto Republican (Lieberman), it is relatively certain that the incumbent will defeat Ned Lamont in his run as an independant) they are leading in five and tied in two. Of course, five will not take the Senate. But even beyond that, these numbers should not be overly encouraging to Democrats.

What is one of the most striking and consistent things in the numbers above? The Democrats - even the ones in the lead - don't have 50% of the vote yet. Hmm... In my opinion, that does not bode well in the seven Republican controlled seats up for grabs. My guesses right now are that the Democrats will retain control of the three competitive seats they currently hold (MD, NJ, and WA). But, of the other seven seats, I am guessing that the Democrats are only able to pick up two of those seats (MT and TN), and those are both very close calls. Burns is an intrenched incumbent in Montana, and although Harold Ford Jr. is a TREMENDOUS candidate in Tennessee, that state has been voting Republican state-wide for some time now, and a Ford victory will still be a great upset.

So, what do I see in the other races? I see an electorate that is disgusted and disenchanted with the Republican leadership and the Bush Administration. Such antipathy is reflected in the poll numbers. But when election day rolls around, Republicans run superb GOTV campaigns, and that will make a difference. In Missouri, 14% are undecided, and if they go vote, they are more likely to vote for an incumbent. The exception may be Santorum in Pennsylvania. Casey is almost running at 50%, and there is a tight race with a Democrat emerging in the House district in the Philadelphia suburbs. If Santorum cannot win those suburbs, he cannot win Pennsylvania.

Overall, I'm going to guess as of today that the Democrats gain a grand total of TWO seats in the Senate (if they hold NJ) - and the Republicans and the media declares it a Grand Victory for the Republicans.



Over in the House, many have considered it a foregone conclusion since late spring that the Democrats would take back the house, based in large part on the Mason-Dixon polling which shows the Democrats having a BIG lead in the generic congressional ballot test, 48% - 43%, over the Republicans (see link above). The Democrats need to pick up 16 seats in the House to gain control.

The Cook Political Report (as of 20-Sept) lists 74 seats as potentially in play (55 held by Republicans and 19 by Democrats). BUT, of the 19 seats that Cook has listed as "toss-ups," 15 of those districts tend to lean Republican. Again, I think that in the House, as in the Senate, the Democrats are likely to gain seats, but I just don't think they will get the full 16 seats needs to gain the majority. Republicans will spin this loss as a win due to such low expectations.

Of course, all this could still change. The recent shocking scandal surrounding Florida Republican Foley, the questions surrounding why the Republican leadership never took action, and the White House characterizing the scandal as "simply naughty e-mails" and "overly friendly." If the Republican leadership and White House continue to respond like this, it could actally affect the midterms.



My Midterm Predictions for the Midterms are that the Republicans will retain both Houses of Congress. I just think that Democrats are being overly optimistic - Republicans strengths in the Districts in question, and in the GOTV operations will make the ultimate difference on November 7.

[Edit: I thought I would include my 26-Oct-2004 prediction post for the 2004 Presidential Election:

Swing States

As a quick recap, at that time I predicted Bush to defeat Kerry by an electoral college vote of 271 to 267. I was off, but only by a bit, the actual result was a Bush victory of 286 to 251 (I picked Ohio for Kerry).]

Skewed Perspective...

Why the Democrats Are Worrying About Money

Congressional Democrats are concerned, and even feuding, about whether they will have enough cash to take back the House this fall

It is frustrating to read this article in Time from yesterday. It is readily apparent that many levels - some of the highest levels - of the Democratic party really aren't concentrating on the core, the fundamental issues that mean the most to the America. Instead, they are caught up in short-term quick-fixes and victories. Has a short-term victory ever been anything but hollow? The following snippets (along with that subtitle above) worry me...

Rahm Emanuel, the Chicago congressman in charge of getting House Democrats elected, has already been in a months-long feud with Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee.... [N]ow Emanuel is expanding his fight with other groups in his own party, blasting George Soros and MoveOn.org...

That's what's going to energize the public to support the Democratic party - infighting. Little minds think short-term Mr. Emanuel...

Despite the critique by some Democrats that in 2002 and 2004 the party lost because they didn't have a clear message, Democratic officials are much less concerned about the party's proposals than about money and mobilizing voters.

This is the key question - what has been the fundamental problem of the Democratic party for the last 20 plus years? Is it really money and mobilization? If you ask me, the answer is clearly no. The problem is message - for some reason the Democratic party has been unwilling to clearly - and unapologetically - define a progressive vision for America. Without such a vision, there is NO REASON for people to vote Democratic. Money and mobilization are of course important - but without a message, those things are meaningless.

But the agenda [setting for a 2006 Campaign platform of 'A New Direction for America'] satisfied the Democrats' overriding goal: offer something that didn't give the Republicans much to shoot at, but wouldn't allow the GOP to say its rivals have no ideas. ... Democrats say, that like 1994, an anti-incumbency feeling exists all over their country, and they need to keep voters focused on what President Bush and the Republicans have done wrong. So Democrats eschewed a big health care plan, for example, because they worried it would reinforce the Republican critique of Democrats as the "tax and spend" party. "Eighty percent of our message is negative," one party strategist said.

I really like the idea of A New Direction for America - as long as there is an actual direction - not just "anything different that what's going on now." Admittedly, anything different than the Bush administration and this Republican congress would undoubtedly be better - but that is not enough to galvanize the political landscape and really motivate the American public to embrace a Democratic vision. That's what needs to happen. The fact that this 2006 agenda is "safe" and won't give the Republicans something to shoot at is foolhardy. The Democratic party needs to make the Republicans "shoot at" full healthcare for all children under 18 in America. Because they will look ridiculous when they do. People want change, they want an actual new direction - they don't want something that can't be shot at (whatever that means).

Back to Dean and the DNC - I think I've said it before, but I am a supporter of Dean's 50 state initiative. Progressive populism is not, and should not be, for only 51% of America. The whole idea of progressive populism is that it reaches out to the entire nation as a whole - the rural southeasterner, the midwestern manufacturer, the Pacific coast entreprenuer, and the white-collar New England-er. Folks in Mississippi should be voting Democrat because it is the Democratic party that is going to raise the minimum wage, provide health care for their children, and provide support and jobs for rebuilding the gulf coast. Folks in Wyoming should vote Democrat because it is the Democratic party that is protecting the nation's natural resources and providing support to farmers and landowners. The very idea of the Democratic party is that it should be everywhere.

If it takes a few years - and a few election cycles that do not generate immediate, short-term results - to build such a national Democratic party, that is exactly what should be done. In my opinion the goal of the Democratic leadership is far to small if it is only 15 seats in 2006. The goal should be something like 75 additional seats by 2012. They should carry progressive populism to every district in America.


Prior posts of note:
Positive signs...
Now this I like...
The Democrat's Problem...